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Published: Monday, Nov. 10, 2008 / Updated: Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2008 12:31 PM

Experts: Drought could get worse

LAKE WYLIE -- While state climatology experts say drought conditions are easing in parts of the state, they remain severe or worse for the upstate. And, the forecast isn't looking good.

With almost no rainfall last month, coupled with the fact that overall the Catawba River basin is eight inches below normal, residents are urged to continue to conserve water.

"The drought is not over, although it's vastly improved," said Marilyn Lineberger, spokeswoman for Duke Energy, which manages local lakes and river stretches.

Thanks to summer tropical activity, the Lake Wylie area is only one-inch below expected rainfall levels for this time of year. A year ago, the area was 13 inches below its average of 37 inches at this time. However, because of the dry year last year, the area still has catching up to do, experts say.

"Around the Charlotte area, wells and water levels are about 25 to 75 percent of normal right now," said meteorologist Scott Krentz out of Greenville. "They're not expecting significant rainfall in the next few weeks or even months."

The South Carolina Drought Response Committee last week reassessed statewide conditions. While five counties -- Beaufort, Chesterfield, Darlington, Hampton and Jasper -- received enough rain to be removed from drought declaration along with 11 other counties, local conditions remain severe. York County is one of 10 counties suffering from that second worst classification. Only nine counties are worse off with extreme conditions, located in the northwestern part of the state.

Hope Mizzell, state climatologist, said long-term forecasts call for below normal rainfall into early next spring. In northwestern South Carolina and nearby neighbors Georgia and North Carolina, drought conditions are so severe, reservoir levels are being affected.

"The reality is, the Savannah Basin cannot endure another year of drought without significant impacts to water users," said Steve de Kozlowski, Drought Response Committee chairman.

If conditions worsen, they could threaten other areas.

"The drought may be focused in the upstate, but it now affects flows over 150 miles downstream," de Kozlowski said. "Therefore, every effort must be made by all water users to conserve water in the upper part of the basin."

In North Carolina, local drought conditions are not as bad as they are in other parts of the state. The North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council lists conditions on a D0-D4 scale, with D4 being exceptional drought. Both Mecklenburg and Gaston counties are classified as D1 moderate drought, compared to 27 counties in either extreme or severe drought.

Duke Energy, which manages local lakes and river stretches, uses a Low Inflow Protocol system ranking drought conditions from 0 to 4, with 4 being the worst. Area water bodies remain in Stage 3, though Lake Wylie's lake level Monday was right at its target for this time of year.

Also, a Sept. 24 meeting from the Catawba-Wateree Drought Management Advisory Group recommended temporary outdoor water use twice weekly from Sept. 30 to Nov. 30 instead of once.

"I would expect to go back to the earlier restriction after Nov. 30," Lineberger said Monday.

Forecasting through next spring, water restriction could become even more important.

"There's not really a big relief in sight," Krentz said.